More than 1,100 people want to pause AI… Here’s what they should be focusing on instead… Say hello to “robo” chemists and tutors... A final message for the AI doomers...
The artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot gained 100 million users in just two months. That makes it the fastest-growing app, product, or business in history.
It’s also sparked an investment frenzy. The value of “generative” AI firms has jumped sixfold in two years. And the amount of money pouring into AI startups has surged tenfold since 2020.
ChatGPT is already doing all kinds of incredible things…
For example, it aced the SAT and bar exams…
It’s helping coders complete tasks 55% faster...
And after working with ChatGPT, Zak Kohane—a professor at Harvard Medical School—said: “How well does the AI perform clinically? I’m stunned to say: Better than many doctors I’ve observed.”
The Tesla (TSLA) CEO, along with 1,100 others, recently signed an open letter calling for a pause on “giant AI experiments.”
They argue AI systems like ChatGPT could take all our jobs and even end civilization if we don’t proceed carefully. So they suggest halting AI training for at least six months.
Musk is a bona fide genius. He’s built world-changing companies like Tesla and SpaceX from scratch. But he’s got this one wrong.
Sure, AI has its challenges...
But do you really think all those challenges will get resolved by October?
Not a chance.
Six months will turn into a year, and a year will turn into a decade. Before you know it, we’ll all be older, grayer, and still debating on when to hit the “restart” button.
Bottom line: AI is here to stay. It’s going to do a lot of good (more below). And no one—not even Elon—can stop it.
Everyone is laser-focused on what could go wrong with AI technology.
But no one’s asking: “What could go right?”
The biggest risk to civilization isn’t letting AI flourish. It’s NOT letting it flourish.
Longtime readers know I’m an optimist. Whether it’s infant mortality, global poverty, or literacy… the world is improving.
Yet healthcare and education—two of America’s most important industries—are “stuck in the mud.” They’re also completely broken.
But as I’ve shown you in recent weeks, AI is disrupting both industries for the better.
There are thousands of diseases with many potential treatments, but most of them go unexplored due to out-of-control costs.
It can take up to 15 years to get a new drug approved and on pharmacy shelves. Doing so costs anywhere from a few hundred million dollars up to several billion dollars.
Robo-chemists can solve this.
AI can “ingest” mind-bending amounts of medical data. It then connects the dots between various papers and databases to offer new ideas that would take us mere mortals a lifetime to discover.
AI systems are already dreaming up new drugs nobody has ever thought of. In fact, there are currently 19 drugs developed by AI pharmaceutical companies in clinical trials. That’s up from zero just three years ago.
When drugs cost billions of dollars to develop, you want to be darn sure you’ll make your money back. So, most pharmaceutical companies only work on drugs that treat widespread diseases.
That means drugs for folks suffering from rare illnesses never get developed. By slashing costs, AI could help cure many of these uncommon diseases. I talk more about this with my colleague—tech veteran Chris Wood—in our recent short video “How to act on the AI revolution.” You can watch it here.
Imagine having ALS, or a child with a rare medical condition, and learning there’s a technology that could potentially lead to a cure… only to hear certain people want this research paused.
I’ll go out on a limb and predict AI saves millions of lives before it kills anyone.
My daughter’s schooling isn’t that different from my own experience… which isn’t entirely unlike my mother’s!
Raise your hand if you think education needs an update.
Online learning platform Khan Academy is finally disrupting the classroom. It built robo-tutor Khanmigo in collaboration with ChatGPT creator OpenAI.
Khanmigo is essentially a personalized teacher. It learns your strengths and weaknesses and tailors lessons to each student's unique needs. “Hey, I noticed you found Tuesday’s math assessment challenging. Let’s spend an extra hour on the problem.”
Kids learn through different methods and at different speeds. Yet we teach them as a group and expect good outcomes. That’s the only way we’ve been able do it… until now.
Robo-tutors are like hiring a personal tutor for your kids, but for a fraction of the cost.
Khanmigo has already rolled out in a handful of schools across America.
The days of packing 30 kids into a stuffy classroom and lecturing them for an hour are ending. This is the future of learning.
I’ve spent hundreds of hours researching and thinking about AI over the past few years.
I’ve seen zero evidence it will steal all the jobs and wipe out humans.
I have seen tons of examples—enough to fill a 10,000-word report—of how it could save lives and transform America’s most broken industries. And we haven’t even scratched the surface yet.
AI will enable incredible breakthroughs we can’t even fathom today. Just like you couldn’t have predicted Google at the start of the internet, or Uber when the smartphone launched.
There’s incredible momentum behind AI. The largest companies in the world are working on it. AI investment globally could hit $300 billion this year.
By pausing, we’ll lose that momentum. Maybe the next Amazon or Apple won’t be built. Those life-savings drugs will remain elusive.
Imagine if someone in 1900 had proposed a “pause” in automobile development because they might be dangerous and would put all the horses out of work.
Looking back, that would have been silly. AI doomers will look just as foolish in a few years.
While everyone else is obsessing over what could go wrong with AI, I encourage you to think about what could go right.
Whether you think it’s a giant hullabaloo or the most disruptive force ever, put your investor hat on. Because this is a trend you can make money from.
Nvidia (NVDA), whose graphics chips power AI systems like ChatGPT, almost doubled its stock price since January. Other AI-related stocks are booming, too.
Where do you stand on the AI pause? Do you think Elon and others are making the right call, or are their fears overblown? Let me know at stephen@riskhedge.com.
Stephen McBride
Chief Analyst, RiskHedge