Editor’s note: In today’s new and important essay, RiskHedge’s Chief Trader Justin Spittler says markets are clearly telling us who will win the election. That’s not just according to him, but to the greatest living trader, Stanley Druckenmiller, who says the markets are “very convinced” one candidate is going to win…
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Druckenmiller pretty much just called the election.
This week, the world’s greatest living trader said he thinks Trump will beat Harris this November.
But Druck didn’t say this because of what he’s seeing in the polls or on betting websites like Polymarket.
He said it because of what he’s observing in the market.
You see, the market has a way of seeing the future. It can predict recessions… wars… and breakthrough technological advancements before they become evening news.
It can also anticipate the outcome of presidential elections.
According to Druck, the market is "very convinced Trump is going to win.” He says this because certain Trump trades are working… Specifically, you can “see it” in bank stocks, crypto, and even Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT), which is basically a Trump meme stock.
Let me break it down…
Trump is a big proponent of deregulating the financial sector. So, financial stocks would likely rally if the market thought Trump was going to win the White House.
And that’s exactly what’s happening…
The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) is hitting new all-time highs as you read this:
Source: StockCharts
Regionals are also rallying hard. Below, you can see the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) is breaking out to multi-year highs…
Source: StockCharts
Crypto is another tell, according to Druck.
It’s no secret that Trump is the more pro-crypto option of the two candidates. Trump has repeatedly said he wants to make the United States the global leader in digital assets. Earlier this week, he declared “crypto is the future.”
So, a Trump win could light a fire under bitcoin and the rest of the crypto ecosystem. Right now, it looks like the market is front-running this…
Bitcoin (BTC) is up more than 7% this week. More important, it’s back above its 2021 highs. And it’s broken a multi-month downtrend:
Source: StockCharts
Bitcoin now looks like it's headed to $100K in the coming months.
And how could we forget DJT...
Again, this is basically a Trump meme stock. But you could make a case for it giving us the purest sense of Trump’s odds to win the election.
If so, the recent move in DJT is not to be taken lightly.
As you can see, DJT has gone vertical… rallying 144% over the past three weeks!
Source: StockCharts
If just one of these moves were happening, we could write it off. But collectively, they tell a story.
Don’t just take my word for it. Take it from the GOAT, Druckenmiller. The markets are pricing in a Trump victory.
But remember, price is objective. It doesn’t care who I think the next president of the United States will be. Instead, it tells me what millions of market participants are doing with their own money.
This is FAR more important than what I or anyone else thinks will happen. And right now, it’s important to keep your emotions in check.
Right now, I’m bullish on stocks no matter who wins the election. The evidence is very clearly telling us there’s a lot of opportunity in this market.
We’re taking advantage of these opportunities in my brand-new Express Trader service, where I recommend the three strongest stocks every week.
Justin Spittler
PS: Staying on the right side of markets will be crucial the next few months no matter who wins the election. Joining our free letter, The Jolt—published every M/W/F—can help you keep your portfolio positioned for success. Here’s how to sign up.
