Stephen’s note: Today, I’m talking to RiskHedge publisher Dan Steinhart about the performance of my crypto advisory, RiskHedge Venture, and where crypto prices are likely headed after bitcoin’s (BTC) big halving that’s happening next month.

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Dan: Stephen, bitcoin has come roaring back to new all-time highs. People are making money in crypto again, and the mood is hopeful.

I want to take a comprehensive look at the performance of your crypto advisory, RiskHedge Venture. Not just the 2023 track record, which we will share. But the detailed performance since you launched the service in 2021.

To start, give us a concise summary of how you see the crypto market today.

Stephen: We’ve had a nice run. Bitcoin rose from $27,000 to $70,000 in just five months.

Now, bitcoin’s fourth halving is less than a month away. Anyone who’s read the crypto research I’ve put out over the last six months knows I expect the halving to ignite an upcycle in crypto prices that likely lasts 12–18 months.

Dan: I helped you write a crypto research presentation in October '23. In it, you asserted two things. One, bitcoin was heading to at least $150,000. Two, the speed of its upward move would surprise people.

We published it and got very little feedback. Nobody seemed to care. It was probably the least-watched presentation you’ve ever done.

Which is a shame because bitcoin was at about $27,000 when we released it.

Stephen: It’s human nature. Most people only get interested when prices are rocking. Judging by our feedback inbox, people are getting interested in crypto now, which is a good thing. We’re still early in this cycle.

Dan: So 2023 was very, very good for your Venture subscribers. A lot of money was made. We’ll get into those results. But I want to make sure we tell the whole story of Venture, from the beginning.

Readers should know where we’ve been and how you handled the crypto winter of 2022. Take us back to October 2021 when you launched Venture.

Stephen: Our timing was bad. We published our first issue within weeks of bitcoin’s $69,000 peak.

Dan: Bitcoin would decline 75%, to a low near $16,000.

And the scandals… man, I’ve never seen anything like it. A seemingly reputable crypto outfit appeared to blow up every week. And the media and Wall Street LOVED it. Blockchain caught them with their pants down. So they happily danced on crypto’s grave, or so they thought.

And Sam Bankman-Fried…

Stephen: SBF bamboozled the world, me included.

Dan: Did the crypto winter of 2022 cleanse crypto of liars, cheats, and frauds?

Stephen: “Cleanse” is too strong a word. But it chased probably 99% of the bad guys away. Painful as it was in terms of prices, it was exactly what the industry needed. The tide went out and exposed naked frauds so the rest of us can get on building and investing.

Dan: Did you have any sleepless nights where you questioned crypto?

Stephen: I’ve questioned lots of individual cryptos, of course.

But I never wavered from the premise—which was that blockchain is revolutionary, and we would ultimately reap significant financial rewards by getting into the right cryptos early.

Crypto is disruptive to huge sectors of the economy in a way that most people still do not understand. The key is to not let the wild volatility in prices distract from that.

Dan: All along, you’ve compared crypto to the dot-com era. People made a ton of money in tech stocks in the '90s, leading into 2000. Then the bubble popped, and the average American lost all interest in tech stocks.

But for those with foresight, it was the opportunity of a lifetime. Many of today’s greatest companies were forged in the dot-com era. Look at a chart of the Nasdaq, up 1,380% since the 2002 bottom. Or Microsoft (MSFT), up 1,860%. Or Amazon (AMZN), up 22,360%.

Stephen: Yes. An investor who kept a cool head and acted with patience and persistence in the early 2000s should be wealthy today. I think crypto is presenting a similar opportunity right now.

Dan: We all know crypto moves fast. From November 2021 to November 2022, bitcoin fell 75%. Then it rallied 330%. All in about 2.5 years.

Stephen: And not much fundamentally changed in that time. It was all about the narrative—crazy hype followed by despair.

I’d say now we’re in a hopefulness phase and are headed toward “euphoria,” as I told my Venture subscribers in the new issue published last week.

Dan: Okay, let’s stop here for today. We didn’t get to your results yet. We’ll do that first thing in Friday’s issue.