Apple (AAPL) did it again.

In what many are calling its biggest product launch since the Apple Watch in 2015...

On Monday, the world’s largest company revealed the highly anticipated Vision Pro mixed reality headset...

... a game-changer that blends virtual and real-world experiences and lets you navigate through apps with your eyes.

Check out this short clip to see what I mean.

The Vision Pro will go on sale sometime in 2024. And it’s not cheap. Price tag: $3,499.

But Apple’s stock remains very near all-time highs.

As someone who’s followed this story from the beginning (and wrote about it in multiple RiskHedge Reports), I wanted to share my initial thoughts from Apple’s keynote presentation. I’ll also give updated guidance on Apple’s stock.

• Apple got a lot right with the Vision Pro…

The Vision Pro resembles a pair of futuristic ski goggles:

Source: Apple

Utilizing a new feature called “EyeSight,” the Vision Pro projects a display over your real-world surroundings so you can interact with objects or other people around you:

Source: Apple

But what’s really innovative is its controller-free user interface.

Thanks to multiple sensors and cameras, the Vision Pro can be controlled through voice, hand, and eye gestures. Users can also control the level of immersion they want in their environment.

Takeaway #1:

It’s really expensive. Too expensive for mass adoption.

The Vision Pro will set you back a staggering $3,499… which falls outside of most people’s budgets.

Of course, Apple is known for its premium pricing. It’s also the king of making powerful, simple-to-use products people love. That’s why folks still buy its $1,000+ iPhones every year.

But here’s the thing…

$1,000+ iPhones are often subsidized by mobile phone carriers. Buyers have the option to spread payments out over multiple years.

Unless financing options are available for the Vision Pro, this product will be over many people’s budgets. Plus, Apple is already making both a cheaper version and a higher-end version for professionals. So, many folks will probably sit out the initial launch and wait until more product options—and pricing—become available.

Takeaway #2: The eye-tracking control aspects of the Vision Pro look impressive. But I doubt people will wear the Vision Pro outside of their homes. It’s still too goofy and bulky.

As I’ve written about before, I think the real disruption is the more functional, sleeker pair of augmented reality (AR) glasses Apple’s working on. That should be coming closer to 2025. Unlike the Vision Pro, this will be the game-changing product I believe will eventually replace our smartphones.

But we’re not quite there yet. One simple reason: the batteries.

You’ll notice a cord sticking out from every Vision Pro. That’s a power cord that attaches to a required battery you can carry in your pocket. And that battery only lasts for about two hours.

Given the limitations of battery technology, that’s the best that can be done for now. It’s not good enough for mass adoption. Batteries will need to be small and light enough to fit inside sleek, comfortable eyewear.

So, we’re still a few years away from “the next iPhone” that hundreds of millions of people will buy. But the Vision Pro is a big step in the right direction.

• So, is AAPL a “buy” at today’s prices?

It depends on your timeframe.

The stock isn’t the bargain it was back in January when I recommended it. The stock’s up 34% since. And I don’t believe the Vision Pro will move the needle for a large company like Apple… not until we reach a mass adoption point, which is likely still years off.

Nonetheless, Apple is still a great “set it and forget it” stock.

If you have a 10-year investment horizon, I don’t think you can go wrong buying AAPL today and forgetting about it for the next decade.

I still expect the company to eventually figure out, create, and win the consumer AR space.

Apple will either buy, copy, or obtain by any means necessary from anyone who gets in its way. That’s because it knows AR is the only path toward longer-term, sustained growth.

But don’t expect to get rich in a year buying AAPL today.

Chris Wood
Chief Investment Officer, RiskHedge