Invest like you’re wrong, always

Invest like you’re wrong, always

Where Innovation Meets Investing

We’ve been spoiled.

Did you know US stocks just did something that’s only happened three times in the past 70 years?

They’re coming off back-to-back years of 20%+ gains.

For months, I’ve been touting Ronald Reagan’s famous line: “It’s Morning in America.”

2024 was fantastic. And 2025 looks bright. Really bright.

In fact, as I said in my latest issue of Disruption Investor, my research suggests we’re in the middle of a long-term bull market.

But despite all that—and no matter how bullish I am—I’m treating 2025 like I treat every year...

  • I’m investing like I might be WRONG.

Again... my research suggests stocks are headed higher.

And I expect certain sectors will do great. Like artificial intelligence, which is entering the next phase of its boom... and solar, which is my top contrarian trade right now.

I personally have a lot of money invested in disruptor stocks. And I’m still buying today.

But no matter how bullish I am, I still invest like I might be wrong.

What do I mean by that, exactly?

First, don’t lose sight of why we invest in the first place…

We invest so we can live comfortably… own lovely homes… enjoy wonderful vacations… and eventually live fulfilling retirements.

  • We invest to build lasting wealth.

We’re making a lot of profits in the stock market right now.

To make the new wealth you’ve likely generated in the past few month last, you must avoid significant losses.

In my experience, this is the #1 thing that separates investors who grow rich from those who never reach their financial goals.

 

There are a lot of “one-hit wonder” investors who strike it big during a stock market rally... only to give it all back on the other side.

Because they didn’t invest like they might be wrong.

Don’t be that person.

Respect the market and always remember—stocks fluctuate.

As I said, I’m convinced stocks are headed a lot higher.

But there will be bumps along the way.

Expect at least a 10% drawdown at some point. That’s happened in two out of every three years going back to 1928. And with investor expectations so high, don’t be surprised if stocks dip further.

So today, I’m sharing two proven strategies to help you come out on top… no matter what happens next.

  • Strategy #1: The best way to eliminate risk, while still going after big gains...

I’m talking about our “Free Ride” strategy.

A “Free Ride” is a simple strategy we often use to lock in profits when one of our recommendations shoots up 100%+.

The idea is you sell enough shares to take your initial investment off the table and then let the rest “ride” virtually risk-free.

It’s the best way to eliminate risk… while still going after big gains.

Last year, we beat the market in Disruption Investor (Upgrade here).

And we owned two of the three top-performing stocks in the S&P 500: Nvidia (NVDA) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). I made sure to take some risk off the table with each one...

Back in February, we took profits on Nvidia (which we’ve owned since 2020) for the second time. And we took a “Free Ride” on Palantir in November... locking in big gains on both positions.

We also took four other “Free Rides” last year. But not everyone was happy with me. One subscriber even said we were “leaving significant money on the table.”

And it’s true: There are cases in which we’d be up even more if we didn’t take “Free Rides.”

  • But if I had to do it all over again, I’d still take a “Free Ride”—no questions asked.

A “Free Ride” gives up a little upside in order to 100% guarantee that a trade will be a winner.

I’ll make this tradeoff every time.

In short, you can never go wrong taking out your initial investment when you’re up 100%+.

Keep in mind, you don’t have to be up more than 100% to apply this strategy. If you’re up 50% on a stock, you can sell two-thirds of your position to recoup your initial investment. Then let the rest ride with zero risk.

My subscribers can sleep well at night knowing that whatever happens with Palantir in 2025, they’ve locked in a substantial profit, and this trade can’t go against them.

You simply can’t beat that.

  • Strategy #2: Smart position-sizing is another surefire way to build lasting wealth.

Investors get excited when they read about a game-changing stock with huge upside. Their minds instantly race toward the big profits they could make.

But often, they forget to stop and ask: What’s the right amount of money to invest in this stock?

I’ve talked to folks who’ve had so much of their wealth tied up in one stock, they can’t sleep at night.

You never want to be this person.

You never want to bet half your account on one position.

Think about how you would feel to watch it sink, say, 40%...

It would be crushing to lose a big chunk of your wealth because of one dumb decision.

Remember, it’s impossible to know what will happen on any given day in the markets. So it’s important to keep your position sizes small. That way, it won’t hurt too much if one doesn’t go your way.

  • In short, to consistently WIN, you must always invest like you’re WRONG.

Right now, making money is the easy part.

Dodging losses is what separates successful investors from amateurs.

No one ever went broke taking profits. So if you’re sitting on huge gains from one of our portfolio picks, consider taking some money off the table today.

And if you currently have too much money in one stock, make sure to spread your risk around by allocating that capital into your other positions.

Being smart in times like these will let you come out on top no matter where the market’s headed next.

As I said, I think 2025 is another good year for stocks. But expecting 2025 to be another 20%+ year is asking a lot of the market gods. I’m ready for a pullback, and you should be too.

In the latest Disruption Investor, I share important data that will help you understand what to expect in 2025. I also share a three-step game plan for the New Year, including a trade to protect against downside volatility so we can stay invested in great businesses through market turbulence.

Upgrade here to get the issue.

Stephen McBride
Chief Analyst, RiskHedge

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